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Democrat Lobbyist predicts substantial gains for the GOP

Original post made by Mid Term Elections, Menlo Park: Stanford Hills, on Apr 26, 2014

Neil Dhillon, a Democratic lobbyist and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Government Affairs at the U.S. Department of Transportation in the Clinton Administration, Chief of Staff for Congressman Bob Matsui (D-CA), and Legislative Director and Press Secretary for Congresswoman Beverly Byron (D-MD), predicts dramatic GOP gains in both the House and Senate.

He predicts the Republican majority in the House will rise to its largest margin in history of that August chamber and the Senate will transfer from Democratic control to Republican come the November mid-term elections.

"Even with 6 months out it's an easy call to make now", says Dhillon. "There's an added clincher that a large population of newly registered Republican voters are Asian and Hispanics and that will further propel the Republicans in November."

"The Senate presently has 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans and two Independents. The Republicans need a net gain of 6 seats out of 36 Senate races with Democrats fighting to retain 21 seats that include 6 races in states that Governor Mitt Romney won big in 2012. President Obama should do everything he can do now to forge some type of relations with the Senate Republicans to help ease the pain of his final two years in office. This will not be an easy task as the President and Congress barely talk as it is."

"The House presently has 233 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and 3 open seats. Historically, the President's opposing party makes big gains in mid-terms election plus the President's approval rating is a low 37%. It appears that the Republicans will gain close to 10 seats and get over a 242 seat majority. If this occurs, this would the largest majority ever by Republicans. Republicans held a 239 seat majority in 1949 and a 242 seat majority in 2010."

Comments (85)

 +   2 people like this
Posted by Right Wing Echo Chamber
a resident of Atherton: Lindenwood
on Apr 26, 2014 at 2:27 pm

See below for the so-called "expert" our local fringe poster has to resort to...

The Gop picks up some seats in the Gop-favorable map that is 2014, maybe to 50 or 51 seats. The Democratic-favorable map in 2016 will take those gains, and more, away from the Gop.

Big deal.

McConnell is in a dogfight - a toss up in the recent polls. The North Carolina Gop might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by going all tea-bagger all over themselves.

As far as our usual fringe poster trying to re-open the topic, the stupidest statement above seems to be "There's an added clincher that a large population of newly registered Republican voters are Asian and Hispanics and that will further propel the Republicans in November."

What a bunch of noise.

His so called "expert"? Neil Dhillon. The only place I found this was a free PRESS RELEASE by Neil Dhillon himself. What a joke. Was once a deputy assistant something bureaucrat in transportation. Wow. Big time. Must be tough to be an unemployable (blue dog) lobbyist, but go ahead and ask him yourself: Contact Neil Dhillon @ NeilDhillon1@gmail.com Web Link

Dhillon is a failed House candidate from the 90's. Seriously: can't you find someone that actually counts? I'll let you look up the discrimination suit and the assault charges yourself.

Democrats are starting to campaign on ObamaCare, as the polls show significant traction. The Koch brothers have spent $35 million on anti-ObamaCare ads this quarter, with the poll numbers rising for most of the Democrats they've attacked. As one Georgia Dem put it this weekend on tv: "thanks to the Koch brothers for pumping money into our economy!"

It begs the question: since ObamaCare attacks aren't working, what is the Gop replacement plan?


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Right Wing Echo Chamber
a resident of Atherton: Lindenwood
on Apr 26, 2014 at 2:31 pm

Lastly, the great resume presented was "Bob Matsui .. and Press Secretary for Congresswoman Beverly Byron"

THIRTY (30) years ago!

Been downhill since then.

Really scraping the bottom of the barrel there.


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Right Wing Echo Chamber
a resident of Atherton: Lindenwood
on Apr 26, 2014 at 2:34 pm

are you the same poster that posted Jindal's great plan in the last thread?

What is the Gop replacement plan?

50 symbolic repeal votes, and nothing but empty promises to replace. 10 million insured, no more pre-existing conditions, no more lifetime caps, greater coverage for women, and so much more - how is the Gop going to replace that?

What is the Gop replacement plan?


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Celebrate
a resident of Menlo Park: Central Menlo Park
on Apr 26, 2014 at 3:59 pm

The Weasel's days as Senate Majority Leader are coming to a close. Biden won't be needed for tie breakers. So he can plagiarize some quotes for upcoming speeches for his failed run for president while getting more hair plugs.

The GOP's replacement plan is to replace Obama with a Republican then the Republican Party will have a daunting task of undoing all the damage Obama has inflicted on the American People.


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on Apr 26, 2014 at 5:27 pm

@celebrate: "The GOP's replacement plan is to replace Obama with a Republican" Well, duh. Do they tell you they 'plan' to lose in another landslide? Of course not. You'd stop contributing if you knew how bad it was (see: Romney, Mitt.)

Who can beat Hillary Clinton is she runs? Care to name some names for us? Yeah, didn't think so.

Seems like a lousy plan if you don't have a bench of decent candidates to start with, and you don't, obviously.

re: Senate Majority Leader Reid - you show such respect! You (and your surrogates from the fringe) told us in 2010 that he was out, how he polled terribly, yet in the Republican landslde year of 2010, you couldn't even beat him. We've been down this path before. Much like how you told us that Obama was toast and would never get reelected.

How did that work out?


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Mid Term Elections
a resident of Menlo Park: Stanford Hills
on Apr 27, 2014 at 8:51 am

Let's review some if Mr. Dhillon's Washington experience:

Managing Director & Director of Public Affairs MSLGROUP
2008 – 2014 Washington D.C.

Mr. Dhillon supervised a large staff and provided strategic direction and counsel to multiple CEO's, global business and policy leaders, trade association executives and non-profit organizations. Neil regularly solved complex legislative and regulatory issues crisis.

He also served as director of public affairs for the MSLGROUP North America network and played a vital role in assisting the network with strategy and direct access to the Obama Administration and U.S. Congress congressional committees and caucuses. He provided expert counsel on the legislative and regulatory process and thought leadership platforms.

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Governmental Affairs Clinton Administration
1993 – 1994 Washington D.C.

-Served Secretary Pena as his chief government affairs executive and liaison to the U.S. Congress
-Recognized by President Clinton at a White House press conference as one of his top aides
-Provided senior counsel to the Secretary on all congressional legislation, initiatives and policies
-Briefed White House Chief of Staff and Office of Legislative Affairs on all crisis issues
-Assisted in the writing and passage of the first Airline Safety Commission in the Congress

Chief of Staff U.S. Congress Congressman Bob Matsui (D-CA)
1988 – 1993 Washington D.C.

-Served as top aide and trusted counselor
-Managed large staff and budget in Washington and California and directed Member's legislative agenda before the House Ways and Means Committee (budget, education, tax, trade, and healthcare)
-Managed several re-election campaigns with double digit victories
-Raised over $10 million while Matsui served as Treasurer of the DNC in 1992
-Served as senior aide to DNC during 1992 Convention in New York
-Served on finance team (along with Rahm Emanuel) on Presidential Inaugural Committee


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by lbbyists
a resident of Atherton: other
on Apr 27, 2014 at 10:22 am

Your 'expert' is a 20 year lobbyist?

Oh, I see, he met Chicago mayor Rahm E in 1988. Oh, that makes him special.

All hail!!!!!


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by no answers? only resumes!
a resident of Woodside School
on Apr 28, 2014 at 10:00 am

Instead of a cut/n/paste posting some DC lobbyist's complete resume (may be the strangest post I've seen here, and that's saying a lot!) why not answer direct questions posed about the 2014 cycle and the politics of it?

The original poster was asked: "It begs the question: since ObamaCare attacks aren't working, what is the Gop replacement plan?"


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by no answers? only resumes!
a resident of Woodside School
on Apr 28, 2014 at 10:03 am

To back up the question, Republicans are backing away from the 50 repeal votes they have had on ObamaCare and are admitting it is a plan worth improving:

"With the news this week that more than 600,000 Washington residents have acquired new health care plans through the state exchange, U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers said it's unlikely the Affordable Care Act will be repealed.
"We need to look at reforming the exchanges," the Eastern Washington Republican said Thursday."

Web Link

Back to class...


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Celebrate
a resident of Menlo Park: Central Menlo Park
on Apr 28, 2014 at 12:53 pm

Victor Davis Hanson, a registered Democrat and syndicated columnist whose columns appear regularly in the San Jose Mercury News has a different view of Harry the Weasel Reid. He likens him to Joe McCarthy. I can't say that I disagree.

Web Link

Most pollsters agree that there is better than an even chance that Republicans will retake the Senate in 2014. Given that in seven States where there are Democrats trying to win Romney won by substantial margins in 2012.

The Republican Plan is to have a trifecta in 2016 and repeal Obamacare in 2017. Even with the substantial gains in the Senate there are not enough republican votes to override a certain veto. So the Republican Party will wait patiently until 2017.

I find it ironic that lefties want to know what the Republican plan is when the Democrats wouldn't reveal their plan. Stretch Pelosi had the nerve to say "You have to pass the plan to know what is in it."


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by answer the questions?
a resident of another community
on Apr 28, 2014 at 1:27 pm

poster 'celebrate': glad to see you got the memo last week shifting the right wing echo chamber from obamacare attacks to attacking Harry Reid. It was on all the blogs!

Your little game of finding some conservative dem like Hanson or a lobbyist and quoting them is rather silly. It would take 5 seconds to do the same, for example some of John McCain's team that got stuck trying to make Palin electable, and their quotes.

"The Republican Plan is to have a trifecta in 2016"

Very funny! Thanks for the laugh. You posted that above and poster 'olMacDonald' nailed you on it. Why can't you reply to his questions?

So answer the man's questions!

==========================================

"@celebrate: "The GOP's replacement plan is to replace Obama with a Republican" Well, duh. Do they tell you they 'plan' to lose in another landslide? Of course not. You'd stop contributing if you knew how bad it was (see: Romney, Mitt.)

Who can beat Hillary Clinton is she runs? Care to name some names for us? Yeah, didn't think so.

Seems like a lousy plan if you don't have a bench of decent candidates to start with, and you don't, obviously.

re: Senate Majority Leader Reid - you show such respect! You (and your surrogates from the fringe) told us in 2010 that he was out, how he polled terribly, yet in the Republican landslde year of 2010, you couldn't even beat him. We've been down this path before. Much like how you told us that Obama was toast and would never get reelected.

How did that work out?"

==========================

There's the two questions you ignored from 'olMacDonald':
- Who can beat Hillary Clinton is she runs? Care to name some names for us?
- you had a hot at Reid in 2010 - How did that work out?


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by so many questions
a resident of another community
on Apr 28, 2014 at 1:37 pm

"I find it ironic that lefties want to know what the Republican plan is when the Democrats wouldn't reveal their plan"

The liberal plan is single payer. The Democratic Party plan is insurance company reform and was passed, declared constitutional and is in place and working so well that Republicans have pretty much given up and are accepting it, hence the shift to attacking Harry Reid.

The Democratic Party plan is called ObamaCare.

(yes, in a realy ironic twist, the Democratic Party plan is really the Republican plan previously supported by Romney, Gingrich and Jim Demint's Heritage think tank.)

The Democratic Party plan has covered 10 million uninsured Americans. It has ended lifetime caps for you, made it so you can't get denied for pre-existing conditions,and added many preventative care options for American women. It allows your kids to stay on your plan, and your grandkids to stay on your kid's plan.

The Republicans promised Repeal and Replace.

What is the Republican Replace plan? It's been five years - why have they not brought a bill to the floor vfor a vote?

What is the Republican plan?

Ol' MacDonald asked and you went away for days, only to come back and ignore the question. I guess we'll hear from you in May, again ignoring the questions.

What is the Republican plan?


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by so many questions
a resident of another community
on Apr 28, 2014 at 1:47 pm

Now, for my question:

Victor Davis is part of the Hoover Institute at Stanford, hardly a liberal bastion. He is a contributor to National Review. IF he is indeed a registered Democrat, well, I seriously he votes Democrat much.

poster 'celebrate' is holding up Vic Davis as a paragon for attacking Reid: "Reid is back in the news for denigrating the PEACEFUL supporters of Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy, a popular critic of the Bureau of Land Management policy, as "domestic terrorists."

Bundy's "PEACEFUL supporters" aimed weapons at Federal Agents. That, sir, is beyond the pale. Do YOU support that?

Beyond the pale, as is your support of Cliven Bundy, a federal freeloader, accepting corporate welfare from the Feds and refusing to pay his bills for 20 years.

Even Glen Beck trashed Cliven Bundy for being a corporate welfare cheat and a freeloader.

Sounds like Harry Reid called this completely accurately. What's the matter with YOU?


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Race Tracker
a resident of Menlo Park: Sharon Heights
on Apr 28, 2014 at 1:52 pm

2014 Senate predictions: Republicans pick up 7 Senate Seats and controls both Senate and House making Obama a semi-lame Duck with veto proof power:

Jeff Sessions R Alabama wins
Mark Begich D Alaska loses +1
Mark Pryor D Arkansas loses +1
Mark Udall D Colorado wins
Chris Coons D Delaware wins
Georgia vaancy goes Republican
Brian Schatz D Hawaii wins
Jim Risch R Idaho wins
Dick Durbin D Illinois wins
Iowa vacancy goes Republican +1
Pat Roberts R Kansas wins
Mitch McConnell R Kentucky wins
Mary Landrieu D Louisiana loses +1
Susan Collins R Maine wins
Ed Markey D Massachusetts wins
Michigan vacancy goes Democrat
Al Franken D Minnesota wins
Thad Cochran R Mississippi wins
John Walsh D Montana loses +1
Mike Johanns R Nebraska wins
Jeanne Shaheen D New Hampshire wins
Cory Booker D New Jersey wins
Tom Udall D New Mexico wins
Kay Hagan D North Carolina loses +1
Jim Inhofe R Oklahoma wins
Oklahoma vacancy goes Republican
Jeff Merkley D Oregon wins
Jack Reed D Rhode Island wins
Lindsey Graham R South Carolina wins
Tim Scott R South Carolina wins
South Dakota vacancy goes Republican
Lamar Alexander R Tennessee wins
John Cornyn R Texas wins
Mark Warner D Virginia wins
West Virginia vacancy goes Republican +1
Mike Enzi R Wyoming wins


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Henry Larry
a resident of Menlo Park: Sharon Heights
on Apr 28, 2014 at 3:16 pm

Hank, if you're just going to copy this list, why not use a link? Web Link

Currently, McConnell is a toss up, as of last week. Recent polling shows interesting results for Landrieu, for NC and several other states.

When in doubt, stick with the guy who nails it (still too soon, of course, many of these Republicans haven't won their primaries yet, and we know from 2012 what that means!)

Web Link (this link is a month old)

AS 538 says in a different article: "The Cook Political Report rates the race as tossup, the Rothenberg Political Report puts it in the leaning Republican column, and Sabato's Crystal Ball goes one step further at likely Republican. My colleague Nate Silver's forecast, meanwhile, says McConnell has a 75 percent chance to win.

Kentucky isn't the only state with a disparity between what the polls are telling us and the state's opinion of Democrats. Dems' other possible Senate pickup opportunity, according to the polls, is in Georgia, a state that didn't treat Obama kindly in 2012. The polls are also close in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, despite Mitt Romney's success there in the last presidential election."

So it's still early, but not too soon to ask the important question: Hank, when are you going to start your bloviating about wagers, this time around?


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Mid Term Elections
a resident of Menlo Park: Stanford Hills
on Apr 28, 2014 at 7:23 pm

Race Tracker listed all the senators in the mid term elections in alphabetical order by State but had different predictions in at least 3 races. Also, the website you refer to had Saxby Chambliss running for another term. He is retiring. It is a vacant seat. Race Tracker had it right and the web site you refer to had it wrong.

Other Notable Differences between Race Tracker and your web site

Race Tracker predicts Mark Pryor will lose his Arkansas seat
Race Tracker predicts Al Franken will retain his seat in Minnesota
Race Tracker predicts Jeanne Shaheen will retain her seat in New Hampshire

The bottom line is that it will be an uphill battle for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Perhaps Obama will suspend the mid-term elections for National Security reasons. You can certainly hope for that change.


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on Apr 29, 2014 at 10:28 am

@midtermelecctions - Yes, it is an uphill battle, except that the GOP is the one starting from the bottom, and they made grave mistakes in the 2012 election. If they do so again, Dems keep the Senate.

You again ignored the relevant 2014 cycle question asked of you by several posters above...

>The original poster was asked: "It begs the question: since ObamaCare attacks aren't working, what is the Gop replacement plan?"

Why have they not offered and voted on an Obamacare replacement plan as part of "repeal and replace"?

lastly - from you:

>Perhaps Obama will suspend the mid-term elections for National Security reasons.

Thanks for that! It places your position firmly, I'm thinking right next to Cliven Bundy. This seem about right to you? Web Link

Sorry, couldn't resist. ;)

Have a good day!


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Warren
a resident of Menlo Park: University Heights
on Apr 29, 2014 at 4:11 pm

At first, when I see this kind of statement "Perhaps Obama will suspend the mid-term elections for National Security reasons", I wonder what kind of warped mind would ever consider uttering that in a public forum. Then I realize, he is anonymous, so there's little risk of deserved embarrassment.

Then, upon reflection, I am thankful. Thankful that everyone can clearly see how far out on the fringe that the conspiricists and whackos reside. And we have way more of them locally than most believe.

Most mainstream folks don't really think there are many of these fringies, so it's good that they come out in the light of day occasionally.


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Mission Accomplished
a resident of Portola Valley: Brookside Park
on May 1, 2014 at 9:38 am

It's the 11th anniversary of George Bush declaring Mission Accomplished.

So, how'd that work out for ya?

Maybe Bush will help the Republicans take back the senate. He can quit painting pictures of his good buddy Vladdy (I saw his sole, eh, um, soul) Putin and campaign for the GOP, much like Clinton campaigns for the Democratic Party.

It will help win the Wimen Vote™ back for the GOP! Just ask the felonious G Gordon Liddy:

"Here comes George Bush. You know, he's in his flight suit, he's striding across the deck, and he's wearing his parachute harness, you know, and it makes the best of his manly characteristic. You go run that stuff again of him walking across there with the parachute. He has just won every woman's vote in the United States of America. You know, all those women who say size doesn't count---they're all liars. Check that out."
---G. Gordon Liddy

Republicans - experts at corralling the Wimen Vote™, since Mission Accomplished.


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Mid Term Elections
a resident of Menlo Park: Stanford Hills
on May 1, 2014 at 1:14 pm

Mission accomplished will come in two steps:

1) Republicans taking back the Senate by 52 to 48 and increasing their numbers in the House. and

2) Winning the White House in 2016.

Then the country can roll up its sleeves and reverse Obama's misguided experiment in Socialism.


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by avoiding the questions
a resident of Menlo Park: Sharon Heights
on May 1, 2014 at 1:37 pm

the writer called midtermelection - you were asked a couple questions that you are too afraid to answer, you keep running away from answering

from earlier posts

>The original poster was asked: "It begs the question: since ObamaCare attacks aren't working, what is the Gop replacement plan?"

And: which republican can beat Hillary if she runs? If you don't have a candidate or three in mind, then your boast of Winning the White House in 2016 is pretty lame, and quite disingenuous, if not stupid.

why are you so afraid to answer? you just keep repeating the same ol' lame stuff

Pogo was correct in the other thread - the fringe right just speaks past all the mainstream folks. The centrists and lefties engage, answer the points, ask a couple questions and the right fringe runs away like frightened children.


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Exceptional Questions
a resident of Atherton: Lloyden Park
on May 2, 2014 at 12:59 pm

Exceptional Questions for the contributor who apparently can't bother to read the contributions! (a true sign of ignorance)

>It begs the question: since ObamaCare attacks aren't working, what is the Gop replacement plan?

>which republican can beat Hillary if she runs?


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Question for Liberals
a resident of Menlo Park: Central Menlo Park
on May 2, 2014 at 2:24 pm

Why do liberals try to change the subject on a blog then express outrage when one won't legitimize their attempted hijacking? The subject is the mid term elections. Liberals are trying to change the subject because they know they they most likely will lose the Senate.


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Race Tracker
a resident of Menlo Park: Sharon Heights
on May 2, 2014 at 3:42 pm

Liberals,

Get a life! If you want to talk about Healthcare then start your own blog. This blog is about Mid Term Elections and how the Democrats are going to suffer Electile Dysfunction with regard to the U.S. Senate races.

There are 36 U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2014. Of those seats, 15 are currently held by Republicans and 21 are held by Democrats. Republicans are predicted to retain all their seats. The Democrats will most likely lose these seats:

1. Alaska. Mark Begich is going down. Oil rich Alaska does not cotton kindly to Democrats war on energy.

2. Arkansas. Mark Pryor will be beat by Tom Cotton. Cotton is King. Now if Clinton got all the women in Arkansas who he slept with to vote for Pryor then Pryor would probably have a chance. But most of them have buyers remorse.

3. Louisiana. Mary Landrieu will have the Obamcare Albatross around her neck. Even James Carville and the ghosts of Huey Long and Hale Boggs can't save her.

4. Montana. Max Baucus retired because in his own words "Obamacare is a train wreck". Most Montana voters agree with him and will vote Republican. This is not even close.

5. North Carolina. The voters of North Carolina realized that in 2008 they got suckered punched by Obama and corrected that mistake in 2012 by coming out for Romney. This trend will continue as Obama's numbers continue to crater. Unfortunately for Kay Hagan Obama will pull her down.

6. South Dakota. Tim Johnson is retiring. South Dakota is a solid Republican State and even Tiny Tom Daschle could not win this seat.

7. West Virginia. Jay Rockefeller is retiring. This will be the largest landslide Republican vote. With Obama's war on coal and by extension a war on the poorest state per capita in the country that seat will be conceded. The Democrats will try to salvage the North Carolina seat instead; but for naught


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on May 2, 2014 at 6:08 pm

"The subject is the mid term elections." And the GOP was insistent that ObamaCare would lead them to victory in the midterms; it was evevn in the original poster's PR release: Web Link Also: " Mary Landrieu will have the Obamcare around her neck." Also: "Obamacare is a train wreck" So:

>It begs the question: since ObamaCare attacks aren't working, what is the Gop replacement plan?

"2) Winning the White House in 2016." & "The GOP's replacement plan is to replace Obama with a Republican" Seems the fringe posters brought it up, not the "liberals try to change the subject". So:

>which republican can beat Hillary if she runs?

Admit it - you do not have those answers. No conservative does. They are without answers.

It isn't that you are dumb, or didn't just get the memo. No conservative has an answer for you, either.

FIVE YEARS and the GOP has yet to vote on a replacement plan. What a chicken**** party.


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on May 2, 2014 at 7:12 pm

Here's a nice article about the midterms...

The GOP Has Finally Found a Way to Defeat the Tea Party Web Link


"After being caught flat-footed by tea-party insurgents in 2010, allowing candidates like Delaware's Christine O'Donnell and Nevada's Sharron Angle to win the GOP nomination and then self-destruct—and then, for fear of alienating the newly empowered Right, copping a largely laissez-faire attitude in 2012—the Republican establishment, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, is taking a different approach this time around.

In March, McConnell told The New York Times he was going to "crush" outside conservative groups that dared to take on Senate incumbents."

Doesn't that make you strong conservatives angry?


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Mid Term Elections
a resident of Menlo Park: Stanford Hills
on May 17, 2014 at 10:31 am

The über liberal Washington Post predicted yesterday that the Republicans have a 77% chance of taking over the senate. Dasvidaniya Harry Reid, the future Senate Minority Leader.

Web Link

H.L. Mencken almost got it right. He said "Democracy is the art of running the circus from the monkey cage."

A more appropriate quote is "The Democratic Party is the art of running the circus from the monkey cage." With Barack Obama as the ring leader in a 3 ring Circus and Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi as his appointed clowns in the Senate and House the Democrats have most certainly brought a circus atmosphere to Washington D.C.


 +   Like this comment
Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on May 17, 2014 at 12:45 pm

Mid term elections has had weeks to answer the questions, and can't do it:

>It begs the question: since ObamaCare attacks aren't working, what is the Gop replacement plan?

>which republican can beat Hillary if she runs?

Admit it - you do not have those answers. No conservative does. They are without answers.

re: the Senate - we'll see as we get closer, whether the Gop can take and hold the Senate for the 2 years before they get trounced in 2016 (defending the 2010 loonies who will be up for re-election.)


 +   Like this comment
Posted by Mid Term Elections
a resident of Menlo Park: Stanford Hills
on May 17, 2014 at 2:36 pm

Hillary will lose.

The Obama Administration has heaped so much debt upon the economy, has publicly lied repeated about Obamacare,and has scandal upon scandal. The mid term House and Senate elections are leading indicators of how much distrust the public has of the Obama Administration and in turn the Democratic party that Obama will be an anchor around Hillary's neck. She just won't be able to overcome the destruction the Obama Administration has inflicted on our economy, on our freedoms, and on our trust of Government.


 +   Like this comment
Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on May 17, 2014 at 4:39 pm

"Hillary will lose."

Ha! Sure -- then it's easy to answer the question you've been asked many, many times: who in the Gop can beat Hillary? Names. please.

You can't do it. You run like a little girl every time you are asked, and hide behind some insane, fringe hyperbole that even Turdblossom has a hard time saying with a straight face.

You predict Hillary will lose.

To whom?


 +   Like this comment
Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on May 17, 2014 at 4:40 pm

Just for grins: instead of one person who beat Hillary -- go ahead and pick a handful; name three.


 +   Like this comment
Posted by Mid Term Elections
a resident of Menlo Park: Stanford Hills
on May 18, 2014 at 9:34 am

Do you notice how when liberals are losing an argument they try to change the subject and then demand answers for their change of subject as if you are accountable to these nimrods?

But I shall humor them this one time

Hillary's a paper tiger. I think she'll most likely get the nomination by acclamation for religious reasons because she's worshiped by the kool aid swilling DNC. However, independents and disaffected Blue Dog Democrats are not drinking from that punch bowl because that would be the political equivalent of Jonestown. And all the rigged ballot boxes in Cook County won't be enough to put her over the top.

The idea that Hillary is a shoo-in for the presidency is just absurd. The hyperbole about her being Secretary of State – name me one thing she achieved in the four years? One?


 +   Like this comment
Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on May 18, 2014 at 10:02 am

Mid Term: you made the statement about Hillary - "Hillary will lose." That's not anyone else "changing the subject", that's just calling 'B*' on your noise.

When asked who will beat her, you EVADE THE ANSWER, EVERY TIME. You are consistent.

And you did it again. As we were reminded this week "consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds"

So we shall ask yet again: you say Hillary will lose. We ask: to whom? Name someone in the Gop that can beat Hillary in 2016. Or name all those you think can beat her.

You can't, can you?

Poor fella. It must be incredibly frustrating to be in the far fringe element of a political party and realize you have no candidate that can beat Hillary Clinton.

How much does that make you grind your teeth at night?


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Posted by Mid Term Elections
a resident of Menlo Park: Stanford Hills
on May 18, 2014 at 11:55 am

Unlike the Democratic Party, the Republican party does not have coronations. There are several candidates who can beat Hillary including Jon Huntsman and Mitch Daniels. However, the primary process will determine who gets the nod unlike the corrupt Democratic Party with it's Chicago back room dealing for super delegates. If it were not for the corrupt method of rigging the nomination process through super delegate deals Hillary would have gotten the nod over Obama in 2998.

Of course Bill Clinton's racist comment did not help. In an effort to secure an endorsement for Hillary from Ted Kennedy, he said to Kennedy, "A few years ago, this guy would have been carrying our bags."

But in the end its Obama's failure as a president that will keep Hillary from getting elected president due to Obama being steeped in Marxism. He has ruined Hillary's chances because when our country needed economic recovery, he piled on regulations that strangled the economy. He has ruined Hillary's chances because when our country needed jobs, he burdened us with the government takeover of one sixth of the economy. Our country needed government to get out of the way of business and Obama added layer after layer of bureaucracy. He has ruined Hillary's chances because instead of helping our country with what it needed, he forced upon it what he wanted for a legacy. His legacy is failure and she will not be able to overcome the damage Obama has caused our country.


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Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on May 18, 2014 at 5:19 pm

Yet again - you evade the question. Who do YOU think has a chance. (not "There are several candidates who can...")

When asked who will beat her, you EVADE THE ANSWER, EVERY TIME. You are consistent.

And you did it again. As we were reminded this week: "consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds"

So we shall ask yet again: you say Hillary will lose. We ask: to whom? Name someone in the Gop that can beat Hillary in 2016. Or name all those you think can beat her.

You can't, can you? Let me help refresh your mind of the political all-stars that want your vote and your contributions:

Romney
Santorium
Christie
Bush
Cruz
Paul
Paul jr
Gingrich
Cain
Bachman
Huntsman
Pawlenty
Walker
Huckabee
Rubio
Perry
Ryan
Ayotte
Daniels
Palin
Portman
Rice
West
Haley
Pence
Thune

Anyone? Do you have anyone?

You said she'll lose. You must think SOMEONE can beat her.

Anyone?

If YOU think Huntsman or Daniels are your guys, tell us.

Ted Nugent?


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Posted by POGO
a resident of Woodside: other
on May 18, 2014 at 8:07 pm

If Hillary decides not to run - which I think is very likely - because there are not "also rans," it will literally be a free-for-all in the Democratic primaries.


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Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on May 18, 2014 at 10:12 pm

Pogo: I agree, if she decides not to run (though we see it different as to whether she runs - I'm putting it at 70/30 she runs.) imho, HC not running would also likely yield a much better Democrat, probably much more liberal than the two centrists that duked it out in 2008.

(How far off the ledge do you think that statement sends my 'friends' from above?)

;)


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Posted by POGO
a resident of Woodside: other
on May 19, 2014 at 7:44 am

From today's Politico: "Mounting Danger for Dems"

Web Link

"In the congressional districts and states where the 2014 elections will actually be decided, likely voters said they would prefer to vote for a Republican over a Democrat by 7 points, 41 percent to 34 percent."

"Among these critical voters, Obama's job approval is a perilous 40 percent, and nearly half say they favor outright repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Sixty percent say they believe the debate over the law is not over, compared with 39 percent who echo the president's position and say the ACA debate has effectively concluded."

Of course, the election is still five months away, an eternity for politics. I am always on the alert for October surprises, regardless of the party in office.


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Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on May 19, 2014 at 10:51 am

"Mounting"? Golly, I thought it was actually looking worse for the Gop recently.

from the poll: "Among independent voters, a majority favor either keeping the law with modifications (45 percent) or leaving it intact entirely (11 percent), with 42 percent supporting repeal." Of course, Politico's poll is predominately an online poll, so your mileage may vary.

We can match poll by poll (Grimes still tied with the turtle; or other Dems running stronger in the South than expected - currently) or argue within a poll (independents in politico's poll favor the ACA 56% to 42% for repeal.) Either way, we both agree it's early for polls, let alone dissecting them for the obvious flaws (online polling?!?)

Interesting poll, though. Seems heavily weighted to our state (CA-07, -10, -21, -25, -26, -31, -36, -52.) Didn't realize so many House races were in CA. Makes me curious to look up those races, as I don't exactly have those districts committed to memory, either the geography or the races themselves.

Am curious: do you still think the ACA is a political boat anchor, or do you recognize the shift occurring?


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Posted by red sam
a resident of Menlo Park: Allied Arts/Stanford Park
on May 19, 2014 at 11:36 am

Huntsman can beat Hillary?!?!?

Where?

Doubt Huntsman could win a single gop primary. MAYBE Utah.

Maybe.


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Posted by POGO
a resident of Woodside: other
on May 20, 2014 at 7:09 am

As of right now, the ACA is a boat anchor, but it is clearly shifting and probably the reason Republicans are moving elsewhere (IRS, VA, Benghazi).

As of today, I don't think there is a Republican who could beat Hillary. But if Hillary doesn't run, most of the major Republican candidates would beat any other Democrat who replaced her. That should worry the D's.

As I said, I don't think Hillary will run. As much as she'd like to be the first woman President, the path to get there is simply too taxing. She already has a historic resume.


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Posted by Mid Term Elections
a resident of Menlo Park: Stanford Hills
on May 23, 2014 at 9:29 am

The Washington Post , the second most liberal newspaper with large circulation in the United States behind the NYT, has lugubriously acknowledged the doom and gloom that faces the Democratic party as it sees its chances of retaining the Senate slipping away.

In Wednesday's newspaper the Washington Post said:

"On Tuesday, the most consequential day of voting so far this year, Democrats were left disappointed. GOP Senate candidates prone to making controversial statements lost to better-financed, more disciplined rivals with the potential to capi­tal­ize on Obama's unpopularity and the troubles with his signature health-care law.

Nowhere was this more evident than in Kentucky and Georgia, the only two states where Democrats think they can win Senate seats held by Republicans. Democrats had hoped McConnell would emerge from the primary campaign badly bruised, if not defeated, but he prevailed Tuesday largely unscathed and conservative groups quickly called for party unity.

And in Georgia, Democrats were banking on Republicans nominating a candidate so far to the right that he or she would alienate suburban centrist voters. But the two contenders considered to have the broadest general-election viability — businessman David Perdue and Rep. Jack Kingston — advanced to a July 22 runoff, complicating Democrat Michelle Nunn's path to victory."

This election is about Obama, it is about stopping his policies, and more importantly about establishing a means to counter the harm he is causing this nation.

It was hard for many grassroots Republicans to choose the mainstream 'establishment' candidate, but to this point that is largely what they have done."

Also Bill and Hillary Clinton's political influence, thankfully, is on the wane. The failure of Bill and Hillary Clinton to push Chelsea's mother in law over the top Tuesday in Pennsylvania's 13th CD and their failure in Florida's 13th CD race in March has important implications as well. With the Clintons being 0 for 2 in their last two Congressional contests they just do not have the political clout they once had. And with the political winds shifting so much, mainly due to Obama's corruption and ineptitude, the road for Democrats in 2014 is a very long one indeed.


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Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on May 23, 2014 at 10:45 am

midterms again avoids the questions he brought up: "And you did it again. As we were reminded this week: "consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds"

So we shall ask yet again: you say Hillary will lose. We ask: to whom? Name someone in the Gop that can beat Hillary in 2016. Or name all those you think can beat her."

From your article: Web Link

Grimes is in a virtual tie with McConnell - the 30 year establishment candidate that took a far right turn to defeat Bevin: "Mitch McConnell would have you believe that President Obama is on Kentucky's 2014 election ballot," Grimes said. "Senator McConnell, this race is between you and me."

Georgia: Nunn gets to coast while none of the inferior Gop candidates could post a decisive victory, thus forcing a run-off: "In Georgia, where Democrat Nunn's impressive early showing has turned the race for an open Senate seat into one of this year's marquee contests.... The Republican race grew caustic in the closing days. Democratic officials said they hope the next two months prove tumultuous and damage the eventual nominee.

"This (Gop) runoff is going to be an epic, nasty brawl," said Matt Canter, deputy executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. He said the primary campaign was "an out-of-control race to the fringe."

In recent election cycles, Republicans nominated several flawed conservatives — including Sharron Angle in Nevada and Christine O'Donnell in Delaware in 2010, and Todd Akin in Missouri and Richard Mourdock in Indiana in 2012 — who made mistakes and lost races that Republicans were within reach of winning."

Let's give it a couple months and see how the Gop once again snatches defeat from the jaws of apparent victory.


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Posted by POGO
a resident of Woodside: other
on May 23, 2014 at 12:05 pm

As of today, the only person who can beat Hillary is Hillary... if she decides not to run, which I think is becoming increasingly likely.

She already has money, power, prestige and influence and she clearly doesn't need the turmoil associated with a presidential run and yet another round of vetting. She'll be 69 years old, rich, a new grandmother, comfortable and experiencing health issues. Why not weigh in from the safety and comfort of the sidelines?

And if Hillary doesn't run, almost any reasonable Republican will beat the Democrat. Now, the Republicans just have to find a "reasonable" candidate, which will be a very significant challenge for them.


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Posted by port
a resident of Woodside: Emerald Hills
on May 25, 2014 at 11:44 am

MacDonald - why do you bother correcting the far right zealot and his lies? No sane person believes those rants about Obama and socialism or the ACA or the birther bs.

He is just speaking ro an empty echo chamber around here.


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Posted by Starboard
a resident of Portola Valley: Ladera
on May 25, 2014 at 5:13 pm

Port,

You can moan all you want but the Democratic Party is going down in the mid-term senate elections. So Obama will have two years of vetoes coming his way. He will be the lamest of lame ducks.


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Posted by port
a resident of Woodside: Emerald Hills
on May 25, 2014 at 6:31 pm

I agree with the above posters.... lots of slam dunk senate races for the GOP seem a lot closer than expected

Keep up with the far right hubris. You were the same way in 2010 & 2012. Look how that turned out.


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Posted by pogo
a resident of Woodside: other
on May 26, 2014 at 7:53 am

pogo is a registered user.

As I recall, didn't someone characterize the last mid-term election results as a "shellacking?"


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Posted by port
a resident of Woodside: Emerald Hills
on May 26, 2014 at 8:59 am

My bad. For 2010, I was thinking one thing and wrote another about the senate. The reference was to hubris.

I meant the hubris in 2010 regarding replacing Harry Reid as the leader in the senate. Not only didn't they so that, they couldn't beat Harry at his most beatable, lowest point in NV.

In 2012, of course, there were numerous GOP claims that they would retake the senate.

This year, the GOP can't even be sure their minority leader Mitch McConnell can win in Kentucky.


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Posted by Obama's Chickens have Come Home to Roost
a resident of Menlo Park: Sharon Heights
on Aug 30, 2014 at 3:16 pm

"We all thought four were in the bag [for Republicans]," Democratic campaign strategist Joe Trippi said. "But right now, it's looking like the bottom end of that scale isn't four anymore, it's five or six. And that means the entire Senate majority is on the bubble."

In several races, Republicans are pulling away from their Democratic rivals.

South Dakota's popular Republican Gov. Mike Rounds has opened a double-digit lead over Democrat Rick Weiland in recent polls in that state's Senate race. Even Reid admits Republicans are likely to win the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson.

In Montana, Republican Rep. Steve Daines has become a heavy favorite after acting Democratic Sen. John Walsh dropped out of the race amid allegations of plagiarism.

A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Daines with a 20-point lead over Walsh's replacement, state lawmaker Amanda Curtis, who touts her inexperience as an asset.

Recent polls from West Virginia also show Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito opening up a double-digit lead over Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant.

Several other battleground contests remain close, but show Republicans gaining steam. In Arkansas, freshman Republican Rep. Tom Cotton has edged ahead of two-term Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor, 46 percent to 43 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls.

Vulnerable freshman Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan also is battling for her political life in North Carolina. Recent polls have the state's House speaker Thom Tillis just inching ahead of Hagan in a sometimes-blue state that's turning redder.

And in Louisiana, the marquee race between Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy and three-term Democratic incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu is a dead heat. Due to the state's "jungle primary" system, where candidates of all parties compete, if no candidate reaches more than 50 percent in November, it heads to a December runoff.

Democrats know President Obama's unpopularity has been hurting the party's candidates in Republican-leaning states. If 2014 becomes a referendum on the president, and a GOP wave sweeps across the country, at least four more Democrats in other states could get sent packing.

"I think we can pick up the six, maybe even a couple more," Republican campaign strategist Ed Rollins said. "The momentum's going our way. The president is certainly a drag on the Democrat ticket."

The states that could fall in a potential GOP tidal wave include New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Alaska.

The latest WMUR-University of New Hampshire poll shows former Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown within 2 points of incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire.

In Iowa, where the battle is on to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, Republican state lawmaker Joni Ernst is in a virtual tie with Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley.


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Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Emerald Hills
on Aug 30, 2014 at 5:01 pm

If you are just going to cut and paste a Fox news column, use the link. Save the space.

From the same column, conveniently not copied and pasted by HL: "Other political analysts aren't so sure about Republicans' chances. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, co-authored a piece in Politico arguing that while Republican candidates will likely pick up seats this year, several candidates have "not yet opened up a real polling lead" in key toss-up races."

Either way, in two years, the Republicans lose whatever they gain in 2014, when they have a heavily unfavorable senate map, defending their 2010 gamins; much as the Democratic Party is this year defending the large gains from 2008.


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Posted by pogo
a resident of Woodside: other
on Aug 31, 2014 at 8:17 am

pogo is a registered user.

It is certainly true that the Senate map favors Republicans this year and Democrats in 2016. But given world events, a lot can happen to impact those results in 2016.

However, if Republicans take the Senate in January 2015, which appears increasingly likely, it will have four major impacts on the President's agenda. First, President Obama's ability to name Supreme Court justices will be impacted. Second, it will be difficult if not impossible to confirm all other appointments requiring Senate approval. That "simple majority" nuclear option that Senator Reid employed will now come back to haunt Democrats. Third, the loss of the Senate will allow investigations of the Administration by BOTH houses although Senate Republicans are bound to abuse that status. Fourth, President Obama will be forced to veto passed legislation, something he has not had to do. This will puts our President in the defensive position of being the "no" president. That will excite his base but may alien independent voters. It will also put Senate and House Democrats in the very uncomfortable position of having to place on veto override votes, something they have not had to do.

In politics, two years is an eternity. Each party will take its victory where and when it can. Controlling both houses of Congress - especially for the last two years of this unpopular President's administration - is a very big deal for Republicans.


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Posted by David Stockman
a resident of Menlo Park: other
on Aug 31, 2014 at 10:45 am

Taking both chambers will make the sensible Republicans haopy. But can they control the fringe?


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Posted by Menlo Voter
a resident of Menlo Park: other
on Aug 31, 2014 at 6:55 pm

Menlo Voter is a registered user.

"Taking both chambers will make the sensible Republicans happy. But can they control the fringe? "

They haven't been able up until now. Doubt they can going forward. If they could they might have a shot at retaining control.


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Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Emerald Hills
on Sep 1, 2014 at 1:20 pm

Generic ballot: would you vote for the Democratic Party, or the Republican?

RCP average Democratic Party over Republicans by 1.4% Web Link

1.4% obviously isn't enough to overcome years of gerrymandered districts, but compared to the 2010 generic ballot at this time of the cycle (Democrats -4) but it proves that despite what the drug addled Rush Limbaugh said, it won't be a wave larger than 2010.

What the fringe hears from the leader of the GOP "This is shaping up to be, I think, bigger than 2010, huge wave election." Web Link

The Democratic Party needs a 5 or 6 point generic ballot advantage to come even in the House. They were well over 5% in 2006 and 2008.

It's Sept 1, so at this point, my guess is:
House - GOP picks up 0-5
Governor - Democratic Party picks up 2
Senate - GOP picks up the five for two years

Pogo is correct - for the next two years, it's about judges.

And how badly the GOP manages their having control. Let's see them shutdown the government a few more times. That should be good for -8 senate seats in 2016.

At least we'll see the vaunted GOP Replacement Plan for ObamaCare, right? Can't wait! That will be good for another seat.


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Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Emerald Hills
on Sep 3, 2014 at 9:50 pm

Whoa.

Wassamatta with Kansas? Web Link

Okay, not the book, but pity poor Pat Roberts. Geez, if Orman beats Roberts, he may be the most powerful fellow around.


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Posted by Mid Term Elections
a resident of Menlo Park: Stanford Hills
on Sep 4, 2014 at 10:06 am

There are 36 Senate races. Twelve are in the Democratic Column; 22 in the Republican Column; and two are toss-ups. Republicans have an intimidating advantage over Democrats in states considered most likely to flip. The odds are that the Republican Party will Control both the Senate and the House.

The following are Safe Democrat Seats:
1) Illinois
2) Massachusetts
3) Rhode Island
4) Delaware


The Following are Likely Democrat:
1) Oregon
2) New Mexico
3) Virginia
4) Hawaii
5) New Hampshire
6) New Jersey

The Following are leaning Democrat:
1) Minnesota
2) Michigan

The following are toss up States:
1) Iowa
2) Colorado

The other are leaning, Likely or are solidly Republican

Leaning Republican
1) Kansas
2) Arkansas
3) Louisiana
4) North Carolina
5) Alaska

Likely Republican
1) Georgia
2) Kentucky

Safe Republican
1) Idaho
2) Montana
3) Wyoming
4) Nebraska
5) Oklahoma
6) Oklahoma Special Election
7) Texas
8) Mississippi
9) Alabama
10) Tennessee
11) South Carolina
12) South Carolina Special
13) West Virginia
14) Maine
15) South Dakota


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Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Emerald Hills
on Sep 4, 2014 at 10:33 am

"The odds are that the Republican Party will Control both the Senate and the House."

What do you consider those odds to be?

Considering RCP has these as tossups:
AK: Begich (D)
AR: Pryor (D)
CO: Udall (D)
GA: Open (R)
IA: Open (D)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Landrieu (D)
MI: Open (D)
NC: Hagan (D)

One may question your ratings. So the question I have is: "The odds are that the Republican Party will Control both the Senate and the House."

What do you consider those odds to be?



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Posted by coin flip
a resident of Atherton: Lindenwood
on Sep 4, 2014 at 7:59 pm

50/50


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Posted by pogo
a resident of Woodside: other
on Sep 5, 2014 at 10:23 am

pogo is a registered user.

Considering RCP has these as tossups:
AK: Begich (D)
AR: Pryor (D)
CO: Udall (D)
GA: Open (R)
IA: Open (D)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Landrieu (D)
MI: Open (D)
NC: Hagan (D)

RCP also summarizes the current state of the polls. If accurate and the election were held today, Republicans would win 6 of the 9 races (AR, GA, IA, KY, LA and NC). Yes, they are favored by as little as 1% in some races, but that margin is equally true for Democrats in 3 of the 9 races (AK, CO, MI). These are razor thin margins.

Yes, Republican Kansas is now in play... but so is Democratic New Hampshire

Remember, Republicans only have to win 6 total seats... and 3 are already clearly in the bag.

It will be close and we will know the outcome in exactly 60 days.


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Posted by Andy Cork
a resident of Portola Valley: other
on Sep 5, 2014 at 12:46 pm

60 days.............

But if that carpetbagger, Boston Brown, wins in independent NH, I'll eat my hat. He may (and does) have near unlimited Wall St money behind him, but I still don't see it happening. He still goes out on stump speeches and confuses to Massachusetts and NH.

NH ain't in play, unless there's a major fumble by local girl Shaheen.


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Posted by pogo
a resident of Woodside: other
on Sep 5, 2014 at 2:07 pm

pogo is a registered user.

Shaheen has gone from +19 in May to +2 in last poll.

As I said, Republicans only have to take 3 of the 11 races noted in my last post to win control of the Senate.


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Posted by Andy Cork
a resident of Portola Valley: other
on Sep 5, 2014 at 3:41 pm

Don't know about those states. I do know NH, but I'll keep the hat near some salt and pepper. That 2% poll was 4 weeks ago, and even with that, real clear calls it 6.6%

I expect to wear this very hat on my Thanksgiving day walk.


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Posted by Mid Term Elections
a resident of Menlo Park: Stanford Hills
on Sep 7, 2014 at 8:35 am

Website 538 gives the Republicans the advantage on retaking the Senate.

"Republicans are favored to take the Senate, at least in our view; the FiveThirtyEight forecast model gives them a 64 percent chance of doing so."

"The reasons for the GOP advantage are pretty straightforward. Midterm elections are usually poor for the president's party, and the Senate contests this year are in states where, on average, President Obama won just 46 percent of the vote in 2012. Democrats are battling a hangover effect in these states, most of which were last contested in 2008, a high-water mark for the party. On the basis of polling and the other indicators our model evaluates, Republicans are more likely than not to win the six seats they need to take over the Senate. This isn't news, exactly; the same conditions held way back in March."

"But trying to defend the many red-state Senate seats they won in 2008 is a tall order under any circumstance. Republicans could win the Senate — with one seat to spare — by winning Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia, all of which voted for Romney in 2012. Even in a neutral political climate, Democrats might lose several of those states. If the climate shifts further toward the historical average of favoring the opposition party, their losses could be much greater, including losses in purple states such as New Hampshire and Iowa and mildly blue ones such as Michigan."


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Posted by pogo
a resident of Woodside: other
on Sep 7, 2014 at 8:52 am

pogo is a registered user.

Today's NBC News poll - it's getting better for the R's. Their candidates are stretching out their leads and they are closing where behind.

Web Link


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Posted by Andy Cork
a resident of Portola Valley: other
on Sep 7, 2014 at 9:16 am

NBC "So these polls suggest a tale of red states vs. blue states: Republicans are winning the GOP-leaning states; Democrats – at least in Colorado – are holding on in the Dem-leaning ones."

Same as March, right? Slight GOP lead to have Senate by 1 or 2? Am I reading this wrong? NBC owns liberal msnbc too. Who owns NBC now? GE? Viacom? Hard to keep track of who owns media these days.


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Posted by pogo
a resident of Woodside: other
on Sep 9, 2014 at 8:38 am

pogo is a registered user.

The number is getting bigger and some pundits are starting to predict "a wave." I don't, but I think the R's will take the Senate.

The latest is Stu Rothenberg, who can hardly be called a Republican shill: Web Link He's now AT LEAST 7 seats.

Yesterday, Alaska polling revealed a huge shift - incumbent Begich (D) went from up 5 points to down 3 in a few weeks. That "leans D" state just became "leans R."

And Obama didn't delay his executive orders regarding immigration because he thought it would help him.

Personally, I think Democrats are now whistling past the graveyard. It is increasingly likely they will lose the Senate and close to a dozen seats in the House. Except for executive orders, Obama's agenda is on life support and he will be in the difficult position of having to veto a ton of passed legislation and become the party of "no." Confirmations will grind to a halt.

But with 70% of the country believing we are on the wrong track, that may not be a bad thing.


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Posted by Andy Cork
a resident of Portola Valley: other
on Sep 9, 2014 at 9:50 am

Alaska is interesting. The last poll (one assumes the one "pogo" was referring to?) was an internet poll based on a panel of opt-in's if I read correctly. R+6. Using a panel of opt-in's is interesting; I guess NYT and CBS are satisfied as to accuracy. Must be a lot cheaper way to do it versus phone calls. Will be interesting to see the next group of YouGov polls, if nothing else than to compare tracking with the same panel of opt-in's.

YouGov.com

Same poll had Shaheen up 8 over Boston Brown in NH, so at least my hat appears safe, if the internet polling methods hold up.


I find the comments above about 2016 quite fascinating:
- lots of "we will repeal ObamaCare in 2017" talk, with questions about what the replacement is going to be, but I don't see much repeal talk anymore, nor have I seen a replacement plan ready to be voted on een thogh Obamacare was passed in 2009 or 10.

- in order to repeal, the R's have to win the white house. The question was asked: who is the R that can win? I think it's Mitt. If it's Mrs Clinton, I think Mitt will get walloped again.


This is interesting, I had to chase the link down to the original article: Web Link

"billionaires Charles and David Koch has aired more than 43,900 television ads this election cycle "

"That amounts to nearly one out of every 10 TV ads in the 2014 battle for the Senate according to a new Center for Public Integrity analysis of data provided by Kantar Media/CMAG, an advertising tracking service, covering spending from Jan. 1, 2013, through Aug. 31, 2014"

Two dudes running ten percent of the senate ads. It's quite the brave new world.


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Posted by Mid Term Elections
a resident of Menlo Park: Stanford Hills
on Sep 9, 2014 at 10:37 am

The Alaska U.S. Senate race has seen a "significant shift" in favor of Republican nominee Dan Sullivan, according to new polling data from The New York Times (NYT).

Democratic freshman incumbent Mark Begich had been leading Sullivan, the state's former attorney general and a former Bush administration official.

But a disastrous ad campaign by Begich, where he is caught red handed lying about his opponent, recently upended the race, and now, based on updated data from an online panel The NYT monitors in conjunction with CBS News and YouGov, Sullivan has seen an 18-point swing in his favor.

Please read this Sunday September 7, 2014 NYT article entitled "Shift in Alaska Helps Republicans Retain Senate Edge". The NYT is a strident advocate for Democrats. So when the NYT concedes that the Republican is favored in Alaska then you can be sure it is going to be a blood bath.

Web Link


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Posted by Andy Cork
a resident of Portola Valley: other
on Sep 9, 2014 at 10:51 am

"Mid term" - this is the same internet opt-in poll I referred to above. Do you have a lot of faith in an internet panel poll in Alaska? "While the paper (NYT) cautions against placing too much emphasis on its model due to Alaska's small population size"


"Mid term" - it appears you were asked the questions previously (the ones I also highlighted this morning in the post that you responded to,) is there a reason you do not respond directly to questions on your position and claims?


I find the comments above about 2016 quite fascinating:
- lots of "we will repeal ObamaCare in 2017" talk, with questions about what the replacement is going to be, but I don't see much repeal talk anymore, nor have I seen a replacement plan ready to be voted on even though Obamacare was passed in 2009 or 10.

- in order to repeal, the R's have to win the white house. The question was asked: who is the R that can win? I think it's Mitt. If it's Mrs Clinton, I think Mitt will get walloped again.

"Mid Term" - who do you think can beat Mrs Clinton?

Where is the obamacare replacement plan, after 4 or more years of Obamacare repeal actions?


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Posted by pogo
a resident of Woodside: other
on Sep 9, 2014 at 11:00 am

pogo is a registered user.

I don't hear anyone talking about repealing Obamacare except you, Andy. We all know it's not going to happen unless the R's take the White House (and even then, it is UNLIKELY). Kinda like impeachment talk.

Let's talk about right direction/wrong direction and our country's leader. I know, Obamacare and impeachment are easier. How about the war on women or abortion?

And who can beat Hillary? Let's worry about that when the time comes. You don't even know if she's running yet.

Anything but discussing the impending election.


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Posted by Andy Cork
a resident of Portola Valley: other
on Sep 9, 2014 at 11:47 am

"pogo" "Anything but discussing the impending election."

Odd that. I talked about specific races or polls in my posts. I also was catching up on the claims of "mid term" posted previously and asking about the claims of "mid term".

I guess that's against your rules.

Impeachment "impeachment are easier" Seems the R's have simmered down on impeachment since polls showed it hurts them.

"Speaking at a town hall in Coppell, Texas, last week Rep. Kenny Marchant said despite the "very slim chance" the House would vote to impeach Obama, "that doesn't mean it shouldn't be done." The congressman added "the will of the American people is not there" and said if Republicans went against that and attempted to impeach Obama there would be "a violent reaction" that would keep Republicans from winning the Senate. He said Republicans should wait until after the November elections to "proceed on that question.""

- and -

"Iowa, candidate forum in January, Ernst told a crowd that she believed Obama had "become a dictator" and that he needed to face the consequences for his executive actions, "whether that's removal from office, whether that's impeachment.""

- and -

"new poll shows precisely why: It's because it's killing the GOP among swing voters.
The McClatchy-Marist College poll shows political moderates oppose the impeachment of Obama 79 percent to 15 percent. That's a stunning margin. And not only that, if the House GOP did initiate impeachment proceedings, moderates say it would turn them off so much that they would be pulled toward the Democrats. By 49-27, moderates say impeachment would make them more likely to vote Democratic than Republican in 2014." Web Link

- and -

Rep. Steve King suggested on Sunday that Congress should begin impeachment talks [...] "But if the president has decided he's simply not going to enforce any immigration law. ... I think Congress has to sit down and have a serious look at the rest of this Constitution, and that includes that 'i' word that we don't want to say." Web Link

Forget the -and- and we'll just list a buch of them:

Marilinda Garcia (NH-02): President Obama "has Many, Many Impeachable Offenses."

Ryan Zinke (MT-AL) Pledged to Support Impeaching President Obama.

Rep. Steve Scalise "Refused to Rule Out a Drive to Impeach President Barack Obama." "The third ranking Republican official in the House refused to rule out a drive to impeach President Barack Obama during an interview with Fox News Sunday."

Rep. Jeff Denham: Would Not Discount Impeachment.

Rep. Kerry Bentivolio: It Would be "Dream Come True" to Impeach President Obama.

Rep. Jason Chaffetz: Impeaching President Obama a Possibility.

Gary Lambert (NH-02): Would Not Close Door on Supporting Impeaching President Obama

Rep. Michele Bachmann: Option of Impeaching President Obama Should Not be Dismissed.

Rep. Blake Farenthold: House has Votes to Impeach President Obama.

Rep. Steve Stockman: "I'm Considering Filing Articles of Impeachment Against Barack Obama."

Rep. Jack Kingston: Congress Will Start Looking at Impeaching President Obama "Very Seriously."

Rep. Joe Barton: Impeaching President Obama "Debatable."

Rep. Michael Burgess: Impeaching President Obama "Needs to Happen."

Rep. Ted Yoho: House Should Threaten to Impeach President Obama.

Rep. Paul Broun Backed Impeaching President Obama.

Rep. Louie Gohmert Pushed Impeachment of President Obama. "Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) on Tuesday amped his recent impeachment rhetoric

Rep. Lou Barletta: House Probably has Votes to Impeach President Obama.


 +   1 person likes this
Posted by Andy Cork
a resident of Portola Valley: other
on Sep 9, 2014 at 11:50 am

I came here to participate in interesting discussion, and have dialogue about the previous posts.

"mid tererm" refuses to answer questions, and "pogo" gets offended when they are asked.

I came to the wrong place. Before I depart, I'll put up an offer about my now safe hat (thanks to the ineptitude of Wall St flunky, Boston Brown): When the R's take the senate, they will have impeachment votes during 2015.

Bet my hat on it. at least, I'll eat if they don' shoot themselves in the foot with impeachment.

Sayanora.


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Posted by pogo
a resident of Woodside: other
on Sep 9, 2014 at 5:27 pm

pogo is a registered user.

Cork -

Well, you are good at smugness and snarkiness. Probably watching too much MSNBC.

I'm not the least bit offended - just calling you out for misdirection. You are very insistent about people answering YOUR questions - often repeating them several times in a single post. You seem to take great offense when someone calls you out for avoiding the topic or changing the subject (such as making this about impeachment, or the 2016 elections or "who can beat Hillary?" I repeat, "Who can beat Hillary?" LOL.)

You may want to scroll to the very top of the page and re-read the topic. Hint: It's in bold letters.

And back to the subject - the R's are clearly opening the lead. The chances of the D's holding the Senate aren't zero, but at this rate, they will soon. And that is the subject of this post.


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Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on Sep 9, 2014 at 5:47 pm

@Andy - don't go away. My good neighbor mocks Obamacare repeal votes, impeachment, the war on women, abortion and more, but we all know they are very real issues in the GOP. Your list of republicans who spoke out about impeachment, until told it didn't poll well, is well researched.

The posters above (@midterms, and others) have referenced these issues in this very thread as they relate to the Senate races.

Just this week:

- The GOP waffles on repealing ObamaCare now that it is too popular to repeal ( Web Link ) "Ted Cruz warned Republicans that they were facing one final chance to kill the law"

- The War on Women - GOP moves to center on hormonal birth control (post primary edition) "Democrats see the GOP strategy as playing right into their hand, with Republicans implicitly acknowledging that women have reason to be skeptical of their agenda." Web Link

- Civil Rights: "After assuring ThinkProgress that he "respects everyone" and "loves people," Rep. Robert Pittenger said he believes companies should have the right to fire or refuse to hire someone because of their sexual orientation or gender identity."

Don't worry, there's still Benghazi to exploit. Web Link

And republicans are thrilled about the political value of ISIS - Rep. Jack Kingston of Georgia: "It's an election year. A lot of Democrats don't know how it would play in their party, and Republicans don't want to change anything. We like the path we're on now. We can denounce it if it goes bad, and praise it if it goes well and ask what took him so long." Web Link

Kind of says it all.


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Posted by pogo
a resident of Woodside: other
on Sep 9, 2014 at 8:48 pm

pogo is a registered user.

ol MacDonald plays:

1. ObamaCare
2. The War on Women
3. Civil Rights (aka bigoted Tea Party)
4. Benghazi

Right. On. Queue. Congratulations!

Unfortunately, we're all a little more focused on IS, the pathetic jobs report, and our sputtering economy. I'm sure you will blame it all on Bush, despite the fact that this President is in his SIXTH YEAR.

And in the midst of your preoccupation, you may have missed an important poll today that revealed - for the first time - that A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS NOW BELIEVE THIS IS A FAILED PRESIDENCY. Sad for our country, actually. And before you go to your knee-jerk response, no the poll wasn't from Fox News. Try that evil, right wing Washington Post/ABC News.
Web Link

True. And sad.

Just let me know how all of this works out for you on the evening of the first Tuesday in November. Last mid-term election, our President called it a "shallacking." I don't predict that this time, but if he loses the Senate, his agenda is, as Harry Reid would ironically say, "dead on arrival."


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Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on Sep 11, 2014 at 10:09 am

Dang, Pogo. Andy didn't chastise you when you brought up immigration out of the blue. It's related to the Senate race just as much as healthcare (for example, the GOP no longer attacking Obamacare in red states where Medicaid expansion was excepted by Democratic governors, like Kynect) and the other issues.

So you brought up jobs? "Unfortunately, we're all a little more focused on IS, the pathetic jobs report"

Isn't that also against your self-appointed rules for this thread?

Okay, let's talk jobs: Nice chart from Forbes "A Labor Chart For Labor Day: U.S. Has Gained 9.2 Million Jobs Since Recession's Lowest Point"

Web Link

"The strong gains so far also meant that, as of May 2014, the U.S. economy finally recovered the millions of jobs that the labor market shed between 2008 and 2010."

"But on a day created to celebrate American workers, four straight years of jobs growth — after the worst economic crisis in eighty years — is something worth celebrating, too."

Yes, Pogo, that's Forbes Magazine that keeps bringing up the obvious to all (except you) Bush influence (read: disaster) on the current and past jobs reports.

Let's look at Pogo's "pathetic jobs report" in context - using a popular chart that righties never seem to comment upon: Web Link

"Just let me know how all of this works out for you on the evening of the first Tuesday"

I've already done so. Referenced it obliquely before. Eleven days ago I updated it to -5, +2, -5. Probably should move the house prediction to minus 8 or something, but I'll wait.

If you seek a new prediction from me every time a new poll comes out in the next 8 weeks, let me know. Be happy to help you out.




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Posted by jobs reports
a resident of Atherton: other
on Sep 11, 2014 at 8:49 pm

That monthly jobs chart is damning.

For republicans.


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Posted by Mid Term Elections
a resident of Menlo Park: Stanford Hills
on Sep 12, 2014 at 8:23 am

The 2014 U.S. Senate Race is Damning

For Democrats.

One reason is the the civilian labor force participation rate is 62.8 percent- a 36 year low. In August, an all-time record high 92,269,000 Americans 16 years of age and older did not "participate in the labor force". And when you throw in the people that are considered to be "in the labor force" but are not currently employed, that pushes the total of working age Americans that do not have jobs to well over 100 million.


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Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on Sep 12, 2014 at 9:15 am

Mid Term:

Web Link

Yet when you look at these charts it chows clearly that Obama has employed 9.2 million Americans since the depths of the Bush Great Depression.

from Forbes Web Link

BLS montly jobs data Web Link

Why have you no comment on those charts? You ignore them and fail to address jobs reports, as brought up by Pogo.

9.2 million jobs.

139 million Americans employed. Which presidents had more than 139 million Americans employed? Web Link

Damning. To your meme.

Recall the depths of the Bush Great Depression, when an additional 9.2 million Americans were out of work.


 +   Like this comment
Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on Sep 12, 2014 at 2:31 pm

Pogo: "just calling you out for misdirection." and "ol MacDonald plays: 1. ObamaCare"

"Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, vice chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Thursday that if Republicans take the Senate in November, he suspects that repealing President Obama's signature Affordable Care Act will be a policy priority." Web Link

Not me talking about it, Pogo, but the "vice chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee" YESTERDAY.

Along with similar quotes from GOP leaders about Social Security cuts, Medicare cuts, etc.. (often hidden as "entitlement reform" because when they say they are cutting Social Security cuts and Medicare, the GOP loses elections.

Web Link

Still waiting for mid term and pogo comments on the real numbers in these charts, since they brought up job creation.

Web Link

Web Link


 +   Like this comment
Posted by Kansas
a resident of Atherton: Lloyden Park
on Sep 16, 2014 at 11:03 am

Kansa - imagine if that is the 51st seatm


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Posted by ol MacDonald
a resident of Woodside: Family Farm/Hidden Valley
on Sep 17, 2014 at 9:00 am

One notes that there is no comment on the Jobs issue that my good neighbor Pogo raised, perhaps because of this: Web Link and Web Link

No worries.

Been a good couple weeks for the Dems and poll news. Still a long way to go. That said, it's getting to be time to update my Sept 1 "-5, +2, -5" especially to reflect that senate seats in this cycle now look to include a third designation (I).

House - GOP picks up 5-10
Governor - Democratic Party picks up 3
Senate - GOP picks up net 4 for two years, plus Dems get the I (remember: in '16, the GOP has to defend 24 of 34 seats, with the weak 2010 class of incumbents)


 +   Like this comment
Posted by IBT Reader
a resident of Atherton: West Atherton
on Sep 18, 2014 at 4:00 pm

The International Business Times has an article detailing how Hillary Clinton might benefit from a GOP takeover of the Senate.

Web Link


 +   Like this comment
Posted by sam wong
a resident of Atherton: Lindenwood
on Sep 18, 2014 at 8:53 pm

Sam Wong got them all right last election, at least with the senate. He picks team blue to hold.


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